US military involvement in Venezuela will have consequences for those in the specialty classes

The fallout from the US’ military involvement in Venezuela is bound to have profound consequences for the region, with the ripple effects likely to be felt across the specialty classes. 

From an energy perspective, governments and corporates will be evaluating what this means for oil markets and their access to highly sought Venezuelan crude oil. 

US was until 2022, Venezuela’s main export market, importing nearly 60% of Venezuelan oil at the start of the Millenium, according to the World Bank. This value has fallen in subsequent years, following sanctions and foreign policy changes, now accounting for around 15%-20% of Venezuela’s exports in 2024-25. This was managed through Chevron under special licenses. 

While the US decreased their share of crude oil imports from Venezuela, China increased their share, absorbing 80% of the exports, according to various estimates. 

With the US vowing to control the country, and its oil reserves, it will remain to be seen how this impacts China’s share of oil. 

The seizure of the Russian-flagged oil tanker, Marinera, off the coast of north-west Britain and Ireland highlights the increasing complexity in global maritime trade of dealing the ‘shadow-fleet’ of vessels.  

These vessels, such the Marinera, or as it was previously known as Bella 1, are age-old ships are transporting items such as Russian Oil that are sanctioned under international law. The vessel had changed its registered flag five times over the last five years. 

The events in Venezuela are a microcosm of the new nature of political violence, in which a single event in a location can impact multiple insureds across multiple lines of business such as maritime and energy and operating from multiple countries, which creates a layer of complexity for insurers to unravel in order to assess what the overall impact for them will be. 

Going forward, there are wider concerns as to whether the US' actions will be a one-off or the start of a new era of regime-change. Many analysts are concerned as to whether the US' actions may embolden activity in hot-spot areas such Taiwan. 

The key for everyone involved in specialty classes, is having a holistic view of the assets and/or activities along with associated supply chains and that they are insuring within their portfolio, so that they successfully mitigate against potential future losses.