A powerful M7.7 magnitude quake that struck Myanmar and parts on Thailand on March 28th has sent aftershocks throughout Southeast Asia, impacting all sectors including aviation and tourism.

Government estimates have stated that the number confirmed dead stands at 1,700 with 3,400 others injured and 300 missing.

The US Geological Survey (USGS) estimates that the number of dead could rise to 10,000. The quake has struck during a civil war that has been ongoing since 2021.

In the aftermath of the quake, multiple aviation flights bound for cities in the wider area were diverted along with cargo shipments, signalling a new layer of complexity for businesses, airlines and insurers.

Aviation Flights Diverted 

Among the most immediate consequences was the mid-air diversion of multiple Cathay Pacific flights bound for Bangkok, signalling a new layer of complexity for regional travellers.

Flight CX751, a regular Hong Kong–Bangkok service, was forced to make a U-turn near Hainan Island and return to Hong Kong just two hours after take-off. As the aircraft turned back toward Chek Lap Kok International Airport, airline alerts and aviation trackers lit up, triggering a flood of inquiries from concerned travellers, tour operators, and tourism boards alike.

Flight Diversions and Delays Trigger Regional Alert 

According to flight-tracking platforms, CX751 departed from Hong Kong International Airport shortly after 3:00 p.m. and was well into Chinese airspace when the decision was made to return. The aircraft safely landed back in Hong Kong before 5:00 p.m. Although the Airport Authority later indicated the flight would attempt another departure at 8:15 p.m., the disruption drew immediate attention from the broader travel industry.

Another Cathay Pacific service—CX630, flying from Singapore to Bangkok—was similarly affected and returned to its departure city mid-flight.
The flag carrier has since issued an advisory stating that other flights between Hong Kong and Bangkok may face delays. The airline emphasized that it is closely monitoring the evolving situation and will keep customers informed.

Tourism Sentiment in Flux as Holiday Season Nears 

This seismic event couldn’t have come at a worse time for Thailand’s tourism sector. March and April are pivotal months for tourism, as Songkran—the Thai New Year and one of the country’s biggest festivals—approaches. Thailand has been banking on a strong influx of regional visitors, particularly from Hong Kong, Singapore, and mainland China.

Now, uncertainty looms over travel plans, with tourists reconsidering itineraries, and agencies bracing for last-minute cancellations. Several luxury hotels and tour operators in Bangkok have activated emergency response protocols, working in coordination with embassies and aviation partners to ensure guest safety.

Business Travel and Cargo Movement at Risk 

The earthquake also has implications for cargo logistics and business travel between Hong Kong and Thailand. With Cathay Pacific Cargo and logistics divisions heavily reliant on Bangkok routes, supply chains could experience temporary bottlenecks. Business travellers heading to Thailand for trade shows, expos, or meetings may face itinerary changes or rescheduling in the short term.

Already, event organizers are evaluating whether to delay or relocate upcoming MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conferences, and Exhibitions) events, particularly those set to take place in central Bangkok. International exhibitors have begun reaching out to local partners to reassess arrangements.

Southeast Asia’s Tourism Under Pressure Yet Again 

This earthquake comes at a time when Southeast Asia is still navigating through recovery phases post-COVID and adjusting to new geopolitical and environmental pressures. In recent years, the region has seen a surge in natural disasters—from typhoons to wildfires—each forcing tourism boards to become more agile in crisis communication and infrastructure readiness.

Thailand, a perennial favourite for Hong Kong and Chinese tourists, will now have to balance recovery messaging with transparent safety updates. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s aviation and tourism players must continue fine-tuning their emergency response to ensure traveller trust remains intact.
The quake’s epicentre in central Myanmar puts key transport routes, airports, and already-overstretched emergency services under immense pressure. International airlines have begun reviewing routes and adjusting schedules, with Canadian authorities urging travellers to confirm flight statuses before heading to the airport.

The Event in detail  

At 12:50 PM local time on March 28, 2025, a ~M7.7 earthquake ruptured an long section of the Sagaing Fault in Myanmar. The rupture started just west of the city of Mandalay, with ~1.2m people, Myanmar’s second most populous city. The earthquake was followed eleven minutes later by an M6.7aftershock. A number of other aftershocks have occurred since then, all smaller than M5 so far. Typically, aftershock rates decay after the main event.

Sandwiched between India and southeastern Eurasia, this entire region is a major tectonic collision zone. The fault that ruptured is called the Sagaing Fault, and is a huge strike-slip (moving laterally) fault that reaches from the southern coast all the way to Myanmar’s northern border, a distance of almost 1,200 kilometers. The Sagaing Fault has a history of M7+ earthquakes (1906 M7.0, 1912 M7.5, 1929 M7.0, 1930 M7.2, 1930 M7.3, 1931 M7.6, 1946 M7.7, 1956 M7.1).

The Sagaing Fault has long been considered one of the most dangerous strike-slip faults on Earth, because it passes directly by Yangon (the largest city), Nay Pyi Taw (the capital), and — most closely — Mandalay, the second largest city.

Early impact assessments 

The initial estimates (within in hours of the event) based on the estimated shaking, population densities, and quality of construction, from the USGS PAGER suggested a 56% chance that >10,000 people have died and a 22% chance that >100,000 people have died, and, with economic losses up to 70% of the GDP of Myanmar. Largely due to 800,000 people experienced intensity IX [9] shaking (violent), and four million more were subjected to intensity VIII [8] shaking (severe). For reference, the MMI intensity scale goes up to X [10], but that value is almost never used.

Within 6 hours, likely due to the area of intense shaking being extended southwards to include the Capital Nay Pyi taw with over 900,000 people, new estimates suggested an worsened state. 36% chance that >100,000 people have died, and a 71% chance that >10,000 people have died, with economic losses above 100bn, which would exceed the GDP of Myanmar. Estimates then suggested that about 3,700,000 people experienced intensity IX shaking (violent), and 7 million more were subjected to intensity VIII shaking (severe).

By comparison, the Turkey EQ M7.8 and at 10km depth (so, very similar characteristics) which killed and estimated 55,000 people, was estimated that about 700,000 people experienced intensity IX shaking (violent), and 2.5 million more were subjected to intensity VIII shaking (severe). Notably, in the order of 5 times smaller than today's quake, however this event occurred around 5am which typically is a worse time than in the middle of the day (for impact) due to most people being inside their homes.

Note that even an intensity VIII can cause considerable damage in poorly built structures, while intensity IX can cause considerable damage even to structures specially designed for earthquake resistance. Very few modern structures in Myanmar are designed for earthquake resistance despite a review of building codes in 2020 which outlined ways to strengthen buildings – to earthquakes. It is suspected than this exercise was not carried out widely and the cost/focus applied elsewhere as Myanmar is once again embroiled in armed conflict following a military coup in 2021, and it is difficult to predict the implications of the existing instability for the response to the disaster.

Thus, much of the early reporting comes not from Myanmar, but from neighbouring Thailand, where hundreds of people have reported feeling the shaking. In Bangkok, about 900 km from the southern end of the rupture, intensity IV shaking (provisionally upgraded to V, likely due to the soft soils in the region) unexpectedly caused an under-construction high rise building to collapse; at least eighty people were thought to be inside. The damage in Thailand is certainly severe enough on its own, but it is extremely likely that there is widespread damage across Myanmar, especially down the central swathe which unfortunately is where the population density is the greatest.

While news agencies may be reporting fatalities in the dozens, these numbers certainly do not reflect the expected scale of the disaster. Reports of damage in Thailand also do not encapsulate the disaster that is underway closer to the rupture.

Among the various impacts that we can expect, it is important to consider the possibility of damage to runways at the Mandalay International Airport, which sits within 500 meters of the trace of the Sagaing Fault. The rupture here likely occurred very close to the airport and runways. Airports are often critical to post-disaster response. The timing of which is poor considering the recent certification from IATA and the opening of a new route to Chang Mai via Mandalay, the 4th route through the location and the first of the new routes as part of the “Myanmar Airways Internation (MAI) internation network 2025” operating twice weekly.

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