China’s overdependence on Brazilian soybeans is a growing vulnerability that could leave it exposed in the growing trade war with the US, according to our new report.

The report, titled “The China, Brazil and US Soybean Triangle”, focuses on how soybeans could be weaponised in the trade war, with some of the key findings highlighted below:

• China is the world’s largest importer of soybeans, importing $53 billion of soybeans in 2024.
• Brazil exported $38 billion of soybeans to China in 2025.
• US Soybeans exports to China were $11.3 billion in 2024, down from $17 billion in 2023.

This analysis is formed from Russell’s Trade Threat Observatory, which examines how different risk threats such as geopolitics, warzones and trade tensions can impact business.

The report can be downloaded in full.