Canada's economy is exposed than other countries to the US's tariffs on all iron and steel imports

Canada’s economy is far more exposed than others to the threat of “Trump unbound” as the US imports of $6.1 billion (£4.90 billion) of iron and steel from its North American neighbour demonstrate, according to Russell Group’s Risk Radar, which provides a Trade Threat Observatory Service.

In a horizon scan of factors that could impact global trade dynamics, the Observatory's analysis of the US administration’s 25 percent tariffs on foreign steel and aluminium imports, reveals that Brazil ($4,403,724,892 / £3.55 billion) and Mexico ($2,681, 889, 981 / £2.16 billion) came in second and third place respectively.

The story is even more stark for US aluminum imports from Canada ($9,933,546,931 / £7.25 billion) which are more than ten times the amount of second placed China ($780, 567, 941 / £628 million) and then UAE ($451, 038, 175 / £363 million) in third.

As Russell reported in its launch of the Trade Threat Observatory earlier this week, aluminium is a critical component of global supply chains which explains why China has stealthily built up its imports of aluminium ore to the point that it now has an 88 percent market share of this key commodity.

Speaking from Air Force One on his way to the SuperBowl, President Trump reportedly said that US metal tariffs would apply to “everybody,” including Canada and Mexico, America’s allies and its largest trading partners.

Top Iron/Steel Imports to USA

1. Canada ($6,087,124,113 / £4.90 billion)
2. Brazil ($4,403,724,892 / £3.55 billion)
3. Mexico ($2,681, 889, 981 / £2.16 billion)
4. South Korea ($1,791,876,698 / £1.44 billion)
5. Vietnam ($798,410,831 / £642 million)

Top Aluminium Imports to USA 

1. Canada ($9,933,546,931 / £7.25 billion)
2. China ($780, 567, 941 / £628 million)
3. UAE ($451, 038, 175 / £363 million)
4. Russia ($2, 145, 135 / £1.61 million)

Russell Managing Director, Suki Basi said: “In our Trade Threat Intelligence launch, we said that the US will target Chinese dependency on key commodities such as Aluminium, a key component of modern manufacturing, as well as other commodities that fuel its economy. It may be no coincidence in today’s connected economy that aluminium tariffs have been levied on America’s neighbour Canada.

“The US may also introduce choke points that reduce competitors’ access to a range of goods and commodities. The US is sending a message that the old rules are no longer in play and the world should expect the global re-writing of trade rules to lead to the global re-wiring of supply chains. The Russell goal is to provide forward-looking analysis insights of the emerging trading landscape derived from Russell’s Universe of data providers to help inform policymakers, businesses, and other stakeholders to help navigate these threats.”

A full copy of the Russell Threat Observatory Service can be downloaded here