Flight prices forecast to hit record highs next year, driven in part by a shortage of planes and parts

Flight prices are forecast to hit record levels next year, because of a shortage of plane engines and spare parts, which has forced airlines to prioritise certain routes at the expense of other less lucrative ones. 

British Airways and Virgin Atlantic have already been forced to ground or suspend flights to a few destinations this year because of a shortage of the Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 engines.  

BA cancelled the resumption of flights between Heathrow and Kuala Lumpur, and Virgin announced that flights to Accra, Tel Aviv and Cape Town have also been impacted too. 

The Rolls-Royce Trent 1000-engines are fitted to the older Boeing 787s, and according to the Standard, many have reached the point where the components in them need replacing to meet safety standards. 

The Trent 1000, according to Rolls-Royce, has clocked up 19 million service flying hours since its entry in 2011. 

This expertise and resource are not an issue at Rolls Royce, but it is across the wider aviation supply chain. Analysts say the issue can be traced back to the COVID-19 pandemic, where many manufacturers, because of the fall in demand for precision-engineered components as planes were grounded, scaled back their operations and made staff redundant. 

Consequently, boosting this capacity will take a long time to resolve. 

“It’s a very deep and abiding issue that’s going to take a long [sic] to fix because it’s going to take a long time to train people, and then you to hang on to them. That starts with training kids at college. So that gives you an idea of the time scale involved. It’s going to take years.“ notes Nick Cunningham, an aerospace and defence analyst at Agency Partners, speaking to The Independent. 

A shortage of parts means that, in effect, many older planes are grounded until they can be refurbished and upgraded. This means that, unfortunately, passengers can expect a rise in fares in 2025 on many routes. 

Analysis by the Independent, found that the cost of a hand baggage-only British Airways flight from Heathrow to Cape Town on 11 April 2025, is £2,922 return, which is nearly three times the price on BA for the same dates to and from Johannesburg.  

“Airline planning teams have had to rewrite their rulebooks on how they use their fleet on the most popular destinations that they need to protect – and gamble on which routes the price will be deleted from their networks. For consumers, prices will continue to rise – 2025 will see record fares on many routes. If you want to go abroad next year, be prepared to pay for it”, said Paul Charles, a former director of communications for Virgin Atlantic, and now chief executive at PC Agency, told The Independent.