We are seeing an unusually prolonged Hurricane Season

As Tropical Storm Rafael strengthens into a hurricane before making landfall in Cuba, it would be one of the most late arriving Atlantic cyclones on record, coming in at number 5 on the all-time list. 

According to reports from the National Hurricane Centre, current forecasts show the storm moving toward the northern Gulf Coast. Texas may feel some impacts, even without a landfall. 

The latest arriving hurricanes in the history of storm seasons are Kate, which holds the record from 20-21st November through Wrong-way Lenny, Hurricane 7, 1932 Cuba Hurricane and Paloma which were all late season in November. 

As Russell explained in a podcast earlier this year (see link to the podcast Is the storm season slow to blow due to the El Nino effect? (russell.co.uk)), a Pacific Ocean heat anomaly has created an atypical circulation across the Atlantic. Typically, an El Niño development (a warm water anomaly across the Tropical Pacific) matches or at least becomes the driving force globally - its circulation inhibits other typical circulations.  

The question we asked is could we end up with a supercharged Hurricane season (in terms of their development across the Atlantic) and an increasingly more hospitable environment for these storms to head West uninterrupted towards the US coastline and with time, into the Gulf of Mexico. Our view was that this was unlikely but could not be discounted.  

We also asked if we could be seeing an unusually prolonged Hurricane season. With enough water warm (above 26.5 degrees Celsius) sustaining these temperatures into November even into December, with some areas on the Gulf Of Mexico approach record breaking temperatures, the recipe for potential for disruption/impact and ultimately cost has started to come together.  

In our podcast we said that the insurance market should strongly consider the possibility of this being a very late hurricane season and it seems we were right!